Transcription:

Episode 1 – Forecasting for 2023

08:00

Announcer: The money experience where experts in finance and life experience professionals, chat amongst friends, get comfortable and listen in while we uncomplicate all things money, how to save it, how to invest it, and even how to spend it. Here are your hosts.

Kevin: Welcome to the Money Experience Podcast. I’m your host, Kevin McGarry, managing partner of Valley Financial Group. This is our first podcast of the Money Experience, and today’s guest is Frank Beach, the founding partner of Valley Financial Group. Welcome Frank.

Frank: Well, thank you for having me.

Kevin: Just a little history about Frank. Frank has over 42 years of investment and financial planning experience. He founded Valley Financial Group in 1999, has helped thousands of people retired. Is that correct, Frank?

Frank: Yeah, it’s been at least that started the business back in 1980. So it’s been a long haul and met and have been working with a long list of people for a long period of time.

Kevin: That’s great. You know, sitting around talking about ideas of a podcast with the team and Frank we all have very similar backgrounds here. We come from blue collar families and neighborhoods and you know, our parents worked hard and they didn’t have a ton of money, but when we did speak about money, which was rare, right, Frank.

Frank: Very rare.

Kevin: You know, it was complicated. And then Frank and I, even though we’re from different decades, you know, we both graduated college and we went and worked for big financial firms on Wall Street, and there was more money involved. And what we noticed is when there’s more money involved, it got even more complicated. So when you didn’t have it, and when you have it, it was complicated, right Frank?

Frank: It’s always been that way.

Kevin: And that’s why we create this podcast to help uncomplicate money and enjoy it, right? What we’re going to be doing is interviewing financial and life experience professionals to help you save, invest, and spend your money and enjoy it. That’s why we’re doing this podcast, and we’re going to keep it very, very simple. You know, it’s the beginning of the year, 2023, and 2022 was a long year for the markets, right Frank?

Frank: It’s been a tough year. The original predictions for 2022 were that the market would the S&P that is would end the year at about 4,800. The fact is it closed at around 3,800, so almost a 20% decline from what they had anticipated. The bond market, same thing. I mean, the bond market has never experienced a down year like we have in the past, and that was never predicted either. They had mentioned that bonds would be an area that was stable, not true last year for the first time in a long, long period,

Kevin: Right? And you brought, jumped right into it, Frank, with predictions. I mean, right now they’re all the pundits are out there given their forecasts and predictions, and as you mentioned last year they were way off with their predictions. And if you go back from around 2000 to 2020, the consensus medium, Wall Street forecast have been off around 12.9% per year. Frank, you know. The question I have for you is through your 42 years in this industry, you know, how do you help clients? And there’s a lot of noise out there too, and they’re looking for ideas and they’re looking for help. How do you help uncomplicated and navigate all this noise?

Frank: Well, the first thing you need to do is we need to listen to exactly what the client wants, what they’re looking for in terms of their goals. There’s very, very, very few clients that ever come in and said, over the next six months, I’d like a particular return. Or over the course of a one year timeframe, it’s not happened. People are looking for retirement advice to get them through the long term.

Kevin: Right? And the other thing is, I’ve heard you say multiple times, Frank, is, you know, this consensus forecast probably is going to be wrong this year, right?

Frank: I would anticipate it’s much like it was back in 1981, 82, that would be my take on things. In 1982, the year started off with the consensus being extremely negative. At the end of that year, the market was higher. It would seem to me that this year, with all the negativity, it’s unlikely that we’re going to see this negativity take us through the end of this year or into next year. It just doesn’t seem logical to me.

Kevin: Right. So, I mean, there’s a lot of noise. So you recommend, you know, the listeners to speak to a financial professional.

Frank: Yeah, that’s your best advice because, you know, in you discussing things with somebody that’s been through this before, it’ll help ease your mind on exactly what it is that you should be looking for. It’s all about your goals, but the goals always have a tendency to be longer term. We want to make sure we stay on that particular focus,

Kevin: Right? I mean, like, we’ve noticed a lot more do-it-yourselfers out there, Frank, in a market like 2022, they’re looking for the predictions of the so-called experts out there in 2023. What results have you seen with to do it yourself or investor?

Frank: Well, I mean, you know, I remember the conversation about year, year and a half ago being a little bit about Bitcoin. That hasn’t worked out well. I’ve seen a lot of people continue to be very, very high on tech. In particular, the, the name Apple, Apple at 181 is now down below 130. I mean, look, doing it yourself is fine if you are willing to take that chance. But over the course of time, if you’re not talking to professional, you’re probably not looking at diversification. If you’re not looking at diversification, you’re taking a greater level of risk.

Kevin: Right. So listen to you how to uncomplicate this for the listeners and listen to Frank over his 42 years’ experience is, have a plan except short term volatility. Avoid all the noise in the headline risk, stay invested for the long term and continue to over communicate with a financial professional. Is that what you’re saying, Frank?

Frank: That would be their best advice.

Kevin: So, Frank, again, you know, to wrap this podcast up, our first one, I want to thank you for joining us. I want to thank you for founding Valley Financial Group. If you want to reach out for free financial plan with Valley Financial Group, you know, go to our website, valleyfinancial.com and send us an email or call us. Also, all our information will be in the show notes. Lastly, Frank, thanks for joining us and for the listeners, thanks for listening.

Frank: You’re welcome.

Announcer: Thank you for listening to the Money Experience where we’re helping you create experiences and memories to last a lifetime. To reach out to Kevin or to learn more about how Kevin can help you start saving, please visit valleyfinancial.com. To listen to previous episodes of the Money Experience, go to valleyfinancial.com/podcasts/themoneyexperience.

This materials intended to be educational nature and not as a recommendation for any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client. These materials are not intended for any form of substitute or individualized investment advice. This discussion is general in nature and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset, class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own Before participating in any investment program or making any investment clients, as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisors, including investment advisors and tax advisors, Valley Financial can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined here.